Dr. Abhinav Gupta
Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering
CE 724 Probabilistic Methods of Structural Engineering
3 Credit Hours
This course is intended to provide an understanding of probability and statistics in civil/ mechanical engineering applications. It will focus on common probabilistic models, statistical analysis of observed data, reliability based design and decision making, and modeling of uncertainties that are unavoidable in the design and planning of engineering systems. The major topics include: (1) Fundamentals of probability theory, (2) Common probabilistic models, (3) Statistical analysis of recorded data, (4) Fundamentals of reliability analysis (First and second order reliability methods), (5) Monte Carlo simulation,(6) Development of reliability based design codes, (7) Evaluation of target reliability levels (code calibration), (8) System reliability and risk-based decision making.
Upon successful completion of this course, students will be able to identify and evaluate engineering problems by answering the following set of questions: What can go wrong? What is the likelihood that it would go wrong? And, what are the consequences? Students will be able to:
- Identify the data types
- Analyze, test, verify and critique the probabilistic models associated with data types
- Model and analyze the uncertainties in engineering systems
- Estimate consequences of certain events
- Evaluate system reliability
- Apply concepts and develop computational models for development of reliability-based design codes.
Term Paper: 15%
Project-I (including presentation): 15%
Project-II (including presentation): 20%
Suggested Texts (Textbook not required)
Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, Vol.I – Basic Principles, Alfredo H-S. Ang, and Wilson H. Tang, John Wiley & Sons, 1975. ISBN: 047103200X.
Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction, R.E. Melchers, John Wiley, 2nd Edition, 1999. ISBN: 0471987719.
Probability, Statistics and Decision for Civil Engineers, J.R. Benjamin and C. A. Cornell, McGraw Hill, 1970.
Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, Vol.II – Decision, Risk, and Reliability, Alfredo H-S. Ang, and Wilson H. Tang, John Wiley & Sons, 1984 (out of print)